Threat assessment investigative themes: The 13 Threat Assessment Investigative Themes, With Questions to Ask

The U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) identified a set of themes that school threat assessment teams should explore when assessing a student of concern. NTAC's guide says that "addressing each theme is necessary for a complete assessment," and that using the themes to see where a student is struggling helps the team find the right resources.

The themes are not a checklist to score. They organize information gathering so the team sees the whole picture, including what's going well. And the team doesn't have to cover them all before acting: "as soon as an area for intervention is identified, suitable management strategies should be enacted."

The questions below are prompts for discussion, not a script. Adapt them to the student's age and situation, and to your district's procedures.

NTAC also reminds teams to evaluate behavior "in the context of his/her age and social and emotional development." Some behavior that seems unusual may be typical for a student's age or a product of a known diagnosis.

1. Motives

Understanding why the student behaved as they did reveals their goals, how far they might go to reach them, and who or what might be a target. It also shows how to redirect them.

• What happened that brought this student to the team's attention, and why does the student say they did it?
• Does the student have a grievance against a person, group, or the school?
• What does the student want to happen?

2. Communications

Look for concerning, unusual, bizarre, threatening, or violent communications, in person, on assignments, or online. NTAC notes that in earlier research, in 81% of incidents someone else knew what the student was thinking or planning, even when the student hadn't directly threatened the target. A direct threat "should not be the lone indicator of concern."

• What has the student said or written, to whom, where, and when?
• Have they warned anyone to stay away from school at a certain time?
• Do their communications mention hopelessness, suicide, violence, or weapons?

3. Inappropriate interests

An inappropriate or heightened interest in school attacks or attackers, mass attacks, or other violence, in what the student reads, watches, searches for, or talks about. Context matters: interest in weapons may not be concerning for a student on the rifle team with no unhealthy fixation.

• Has the student shown a fixation on past attackers or attacks?
• How do they talk about these interests, and how has that changed over time?

4. Weapons access

NTAC notes that many school attackers used firearms acquired from their homes, and that parents sometimes wrongly assume their children don't know where weapons are stored. Firearms aren't the only concern; knives, explosives, and incendiary devices have also been used.

• Are there weapons in the home, or at a relative's or friend's home?
• How are they stored, and does the student know how to access or use them?

5. Stressors

All students face setbacks, losses, and challenges. For some, stressors become overwhelming. Look at school (coursework, friendships, relationships, teammates) and outside school (family, jobs), including bullying in person or online.

• What stressors is the student facing now, and which past ones still affect them?
• Are more setbacks likely soon, such as a relationship ending or a move?
• How is the student coping, and who supports them?

6. Emotional and developmental issues

Anxiety, depression, thoughts of suicide, and other mental health issues matter. So does context: behavior that's a product of a diagnosis should be evaluated against that diagnosis and the student's known baseline.

• Is the student receiving, or in need of, mental health support?
• How does the current behavior compare to the student's usual baseline?

7. Desperation or despair

Assess whether the student feels hopeless, desperate, or out of options, including suicidal thoughts or gestures.

• Has the student felt this way before? How did they manage then, and are those supports still available?
• Has the student tried to solve the problem in a positive way and failed?

8. Violence as an option

Some students who feel out of options see violence as the only way to solve a problem or settle a grievance.

• Does the student think violence is acceptable or necessary?
• Have they used violence before to solve problems?
• Do peers or others encourage violence?
• Can the student name other ways to address the grievance?

9. Concerned others

In many past incidents, people around the student were worried beforehand.

• Are parents, friends, classmates, teachers, or others worried about the student?
• What specific behaviors worried them, and did anyone act on that concern?

10. Capacity to carry out an attack

Is the student's thinking and behavior organized enough to plan and carry out an attack, and do they have the resources? At minimum that means access to a weapon and the ability to bring it to school undetected.

• Could the student get a weapon and get it onto campus?
• Is the student's thinking organized enough to follow through on a plan?

11. Planning

NTAC notes that targeted school attacks "are rarely sudden or impulsive acts of violence." Planning can be simple or elaborate.

• Has the student made lists of targets, researched tactics, drawn maps, tested security, or rehearsed?
• Have they acquired, made, or practiced with a weapon?

12. Consistency

Corroborate what the student says against their actions and what others report. When they don't match, find out why. It may be deliberate concealment, or something else entirely, such as a depressed student who describes themselves as isolated despite a busy social life.

• Do the student's statements match their behavior, social media, and what friends and family say?
• If not, what explains the difference?

13. Protective factors

A full assessment includes the positive influences in the student's life. These often become the foundation of the management plan.

• Does the student have a trusted adult at school, such as a teacher, coach, counselor, nurse, SRO, or custodian?
• Does the student have friends they feel connected to?
• Are there activities, teams, clubs, or goals that matter to them?

Putting the themes to work

Use a consistent structure so every case covers every theme, and so the team can compare what's known across reports over time. Our free Threat Assessment Worksheet is organized around these 13 themes.

Sources

U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center, Enhancing School Safety Using a Threat Assessment Model: An Operational Guide for Preventing Targeted School Violence (2018), free at secretservice.gov/protection/ntac.